COP30: Brazil Can Lead Beyond Its Trees

As Brazil prepares to host COP30 in Belém this November, the world’s attention naturally turns to the Amazon—the planet’s largest and most vital rainforest.

And with good reason.

The Amazon is essential to global climate stability and central to Brazil’s identity. Deforestation and burning must be stopped, criminals must be prosecuted, and the bioeconomy must be strengthened.

But let’s be clear: as critical as the forests are, we must move beyond trees to solve the climate crisis. What’s required is a systemic shift that reduces emissions across industries and economies—quickly, sustainably and at scale.

The IPCC warns that we have just 2–3 years to act to avoid sustained warming above 1.5ºC and 5–11 years to prevent surpassing 2ºC.

Meanwhile, McKinsey & Company's Net-Zero Transition estimates that fully decarbonizing the global economy will require an additional $1 to $3 trillion USD per year through 2050, beyond current investments. Yet, global commitments since COP29 amount to just $300 billion per year.

We have no time to waste.

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The Circular Economy: An Unrealized Opportunity

One of the most promising—yet underutilized—solutions is the circular economy. As the energy transition advances, circularity presents the next frontier of climate action.

Circularity tackles major emissions sources like methane at landfills by incentivizing organic waste treatment. It also reduces emissions from extracting, hauling, and processing raw materials through reuse, recycling, and improved resource utilization.

So I ask: what if COP30 was remembered as “Amazon+”—a legacy led by Brazil that also unlocks circularity while prioritizing methane reduction?

According to the Circle Economy Foundation and Deloitte, doubling the global circularity rate could reduce up to 85% of the emissions needed to limit warming to 2ºC—over five times the combined impact of other solutions within the same period. The World Business Council for Sustainable Development suggests its Global Circularity Protocol could address 6-7% of global CO₂ equivalent emissions between 2026 and 2050 (totaling ~67-76 Gt CO₂eq)—emissions reductions that are not currently accounted for in climate models.

And still, circularity remains sidelined in climate discussions—often dismissed as too complex and relegated to a subcategory within waste management.

That needs to change—right away.

Circularity solutions are already viable, powered by:

• Effective policies like Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), especially when combined with market-based solutions like circularity credits.

• Technology to track, verify, and certify circularity.

• Market mechanisms to direct capital into low-risk, efficient supply chains—without relying solely on government funding.

This is a blueprint ready for global adoption.

Infrastructure, Incentives—and a Breakthrough from Brazil

Scaling circularity requires more than policies and technology. It needs physical infrastructure and aligned incentives across the value chain.

Brazil is showing innovation here that can serve as an example globally. In some respects, Brazil is more agile than Europe or the US, where centralized waste systems and entrenched solutions like waste-to-energy plants are common practice, as they are slow to dismantle and compete with circular models.

Brazil’s decentralized waste ecosystem and limited public resources have fueled innovation—including the emergence of circularity credits, a financial mechanism that rewards contributors across value chains, reshaping the economics of recovery of materials and products.

Circularity credits include Reuse Credits, Recycling Credits, and Carbon Credits tied to prevented emissions from circular practices. They serve to put a price on pollution for waste producers and an incentive for value chain participants to participate in sorting, hauling and recovering materials.

When these credits are sold, proceeds are equitably distributed among recyclers, processors, haulers, waste pickers, and cooperatives—and critically, waste generators (industrials, businesses, and households) who make the key decision to sort materials at the source.

This system is transparent and traceable, giving companies and investors confidence in the impact they’re funding. The solution is already being considered for inclusion in the regulated carbon market (Sistema Brasileiro de Comercio de Emissões), a cap-and-trade model that expects to include 5-20% of carbon credits.

The crediting system enables private capital to fund circular supply chains, enabling businesses to meet ESG goals and EPR mandates—securely, audibly, and cost-effectively.

The credits also unlock funding for micro, small, and medium enterprises—an area where green bonds and sustainability-linked bonds often fall short—expanding access and participation in a manner that can scale circular action everywhere.

Brazil’s Potential Legacy at COP30

It’s a paradox: Brazil is deeply environmentally conscious yet ranks among the lowest globally in circularity rates. This presents a rare and timely opportunity to flip the narrative.

Brazil holds three distinct advantages to lead:

• A progressive National Solid Waste Policy that encourages decentralization.

• A Central Bank globally recognized for its leadership in tokenization and open finance.

• A vibrant community of developers building advanced supply chain tracking technologies

It’s not too late.

Brazil has the opportunity to make the circular economy a defining legacy of COP30—advancing a climate solution that effectively tackles methane, the super pollutant behind ~30% of global warming, while promoting a model that is economically viable, socially inclusive, resource-efficient, and private sector-led.

It is time for action.

💡 Should Brazil use COP30 to lead on the circular economy? I look forward to hearing your thoughts.